[sift this] As the Bitsifter Digest enters it's ninth month of publication, we're finding it odd that we're still up and running. Nine months is an eternity in the computer industry. For example, who knew the name Marimba nine months ago? It stands to reason that if you can last nine months on the Internet without getting stale, hell, you can probably change the world.

We're not trying to change the world, we're just trying to figure it out.

Here's our predictions for the coming year:

1) The Apple/Next Merger. Apple has pulled out all stops in presenting a revitalized facade. They've brought back the Woz and Steve Jobs and also purchased themselves an operating system that most everyone thought was a dead end. This merger reminds me of a particularly exciting day back in the early 90's when IBM and Apple's Pink OS was on everyones' lips. What happen there? Our call: Nothing significant produced from Apple in the next 12 months. Guaranteed.

2) Autonomous Agents. The idea that a computer program can wander the net finding information suited to a particular users tastes is particularly slippery. The program is only going to be as good as the description that is provided to it. In the time that it takes to do that, I'm going to AltaVista, typing in a few key words and getting on with my day. The Bitsifter Says: Cool buzz word, bad idea.

3) Microsoft's Domination of the PC Market. There is no way that much will change in Redmond this year. Bill Gates put the fear of God in His employees. He convinced them that Netscape needs to be chastized, rendered pentitent. They'll stay fairly limber during the next 12 months. There are some irrations they'll have to watch though: 1) Netscape isn't going anywhere (see next prediction) 2) IS managers are getting fed up with upgrading operating systems every 12 months and while Windows NT 4.0 is slick, the adoption rate will be worse than Windows 95 3) Microsoft is pouring insane amounts of money into their content business -- just how big is their war chest, anyhow? We think: Microsoft. Everywhere.

4) Netscape. The buzz phrase of early '97 is "Netscape is Doomed". The idea that the browser market can be dominated by one company is absurd. An similar example might be the SQL database market in which Oracle, Sybase, and Informix compete in, year in and year out. Larry Ellison would love to see Informix drop off the face of the earth, but he also knows that competition is an incredible way to motivate the troops. Bitsifter Prediction: Thanks to a diverse set of Internet servers and the forthcoming Communicator product, Netscape is going to have a solid year.

5) VRML. This topic really don't belong on in this list because VRML isn't going to change the world in the next 12 months. When the SGI Magic Bus came by the other day, we were amazed by the fully rendered flight simulator that required six Onyx workstations to run. Six Onyx Workstations, people. Sure, that type of computing testosterone isn't necessary for desktop VRML, but it remains an eclectic and confusing way to present information on the Internet. We say: VRML is, gee-whiz, not practical for the desktop.

6) Push Technology. Marimba has championed the "push" idea with their Castanet tuner and are likely to see big dollar signs because of it. The tuner is totally java-based, which is essential for cross-platform deployment. But it also means that it is a processor hog - even on high-end systems. Everyone is jumping on the "push" band wagon; the year will see the Netscape Constellation component for their Communicator suite, as well as Microsoft's Active Desktop. Meanwhile, the originator of the whole "push" idea, the Pointcast Network, seemed to decide they were a content company. Huh? Bitsifter says: Before Push can shove, it needs to mature before it'll grab my processor cycles. You'll have to wait until the end of the year before a usable product surfaces.

7) America On-line. It can't get worse for AOL after the first few months of the year. Their choice to provide flat-rate pricing was necessary with Internet Service Providers threatening their bottom line, but they didn't consider the fact that their network couldn't handle the morass of members who just weren't ever going to log off. Here's more bad news. AOL is doomed. With a commercial Internet, all of the features (newsgroups, chat rooms) that make AOL special are suddenly free as long as you have an Internet account. Bitsifter prognosticates: As ISPs provide better connection kits to the Net, AOL members will bolt. Stay away from AOL stock.

8) Internet Indexes. There are roughly 20 search indexes listed on Netscape Net Search page and these companies are getting aggressive with the campaigns to get you to use their site. Bitsifter says: Look for significant consolidation in this market during the next 12 months as Yahoo, Excite, and AltaVista continue their climb to the the top by eating the little guys.

9) Geek Burn Out. We're going long term with our last prediction. With everyone and their brother trying to make out like Netscape, there is a time bomb ticking in California. Product development teams are work insane hours in the hope that they'll strike it rich with lucrative stock options. Most are headed for disappointment. The degree of stress is unheard of and then dam will break. Our call: Look for a return to the 70's with a high tech "neo-hippie" attitude that will make it allright to relax.