You leave out the risk factor from the hiree POV.
- How risky is for me to work for you?
- Are you a startup? A big company?
- What information I don't yet have? Financial, cultural, tech, whatever.

I usually factor in a risk cost to accept an offer. Changing your salary while employed is usually quite tricky and stressful, so better safe than sorry.

I don't want my gut telling me I made a bad call, that fudge factor helps to compensate.